So what changes?

In the comments, Gaius says he has a hard time grasping the significance of what Catholics like me are touting as a big upset at the USCCB.

I'm afraid my protestant self totally missed the political implications..?

I'm sure he is not the only one. The Catholic Church is like one of those supertankers that takes five miles with the engines in full reverse to stop. Since about October 1978, the North American church has been slowing down. Now it has come to rest and it will start moving off in a new direction but it will go painfully slowly.

So why do people care so much? Because of what isn't going to happen.

So what won't happen? There was a big liberalizing moment that ran from 1962 to 1978 and liberals have been hoping ever since that they would someday be able to restart what they call "the unfinished business of Vatican II". That isn't going to happen now.


Catholic liberals, like political liberals, have always assumed that whatever setbacks there might be on the way, history and biology were on their side. They just had to out wait the crusty old conservatives and they'd get what they wanted because the new, young blood would be more liberal.


Much to everyone's surprise, things went the other way. Catholic liberals are a rapidly greying bunch and the younger priests and bishops have tended to be progressively more conservative.  The liberals are now the crusty old reactionaries and the young Turks are mostly conservative.

Elsewhere in the Catholic blogosphere you will see some gloating over this but not here. I thought the liberals went too far in some areas and that some reforms were simply misguided from the beginning but I refuse to gloat when someone else loses the mission that has motivated them for the entire life. And that is what has happened here. The liberal moment in American Catholicism is now irrevocably over. It's dead Jim.

 Predictions
So, what happens now?

The truth is that the spectrum of opinions represented by the Bishops is very narrow. On liturgical and doctrinal issues, even the most liberal bishop is slightly conservative. On social issues, even the most conservative bishop is going to be slightly liberal. It is pretty much impossible to become a bishop otherwise.

I suspect that fans of the Traditional Latin Mass are probably in for a huge disappointment. Novus Ordo is here to stay. The current translation will go but that will most likely be the last nail in the TLM's coffin because the new translation will eliminate most if not all of the cogent arguments against the Novus Ordo.

On the social side of the equation, people like me who would like to see the church accept capitalism more enthusiastically will go to our graves before any such change happens. We will probably see a (very) gradual de-emphasizing of church support of big government initiatives. Catholic support of unions will also decline for the simple reason that most North American Catholics aren't union members anymore.

What will happen on sexual teachings?

1. Well, the abortion issue is decided. Those who might have hoped to relax the hard anti-abortion stance or change to a more pro-choice position have been completely routed.
2. Other issues such as birth control, sex before marriage and sex culminating in male orgasm such that pregnancy is impossible? As I've said before, the de facto church position on these things has been don't ask, don't tell for a long time now. The official position is that these practices are not acceptable but you'll rarely hear a priest actually say so from the pulpit or in direct instruction. My sense is that most priests are ashamed to even bring it up and that most Catholics would ignore them if they did. The bishops might make pronouncements now and then but they know no one is listening.*
3. On sex abuses the hard work is already done. It will take decades to restore the church's reputation and credibility here but it will happen.

As I say, all of this will seem like small beer to outsiders and maybe even to insiders but there you are.


* I have several friends who do the thankless task of explaining natural family planning in marriage prep courses. Their goal is to get people to listen respectfully in the hopes that they might gain a couple of converts and they sometimes do but that is all they aim to do. Having watched several such sessions, I can tell you that the strongest opposition comes from the women. The men are often doubtful but are are ready to go along with whatever their wife to be decides. (I'll expand on this in an upcoming post.)