(Note: No, it is not supposed to be "lede.)
Imagine that your company screwed up and delivered lousy service. Now imagine that a journalist calls up and offers to write a major thumbsucker about your error only framing it so as to actually make you the hero.
Well, if you're Frank Graves of the Ekos polling company, you don't have to imagine because Michael Valpy did just that. Short version: Ekos numbers were off last election because they failed to anticipate that young people are considerably less likely to vote than older people. And water is still wet, men and women are still different from one another in important ways and bears do use the woods for a toilet. Oh yeah, Michael Valpy also thinks that the fact that young people don't vote in large numbers is a deeply troubling sign for our democracy and it's hard not to suspect that is mostly because the party he thinks ought to have won didn't.
But for all its triteness, the Valpy piece does contain one fascinating fact:
But here is the thing, rewind back to 1990 when today's 45 year old was twenty-five and what do you find? Why, you'd find some things the same and some things different. You'd find that young people favour the Liberals or NDP but are less likely to vote. That's the part that is the same.
But on the other side, you'd find that older people were more likely to favour the Liberals. That is where the real action is. Left-leaning parties always get the youth in polls, elections are won or lost on the basis of that over-forty vote.
Imagine that your company screwed up and delivered lousy service. Now imagine that a journalist calls up and offers to write a major thumbsucker about your error only framing it so as to actually make you the hero.
Well, if you're Frank Graves of the Ekos polling company, you don't have to imagine because Michael Valpy did just that. Short version: Ekos numbers were off last election because they failed to anticipate that young people are considerably less likely to vote than older people. And water is still wet, men and women are still different from one another in important ways and bears do use the woods for a toilet. Oh yeah, Michael Valpy also thinks that the fact that young people don't vote in large numbers is a deeply troubling sign for our democracy and it's hard not to suspect that is mostly because the party he thinks ought to have won didn't.
But for all its triteness, the Valpy piece does contain one fascinating fact:
On one side of the gap: Canadians over 45 enthusiastically favouring the Conservatives, with a likelihood of voting starting at about 60 per cent and rising with age to more than 80 per cent.Meaning that baby boomers overwhelmingly vote conservative. Also meaning that the age group most likely to read the Globe and Mail also vote conservative, a detail you'd never guess in a million years if you took the Globe itself as your guide to the attitudes and beliefs of that age group.
But here is the thing, rewind back to 1990 when today's 45 year old was twenty-five and what do you find? Why, you'd find some things the same and some things different. You'd find that young people favour the Liberals or NDP but are less likely to vote. That's the part that is the same.
But on the other side, you'd find that older people were more likely to favour the Liberals. That is where the real action is. Left-leaning parties always get the youth in polls, elections are won or lost on the basis of that over-forty vote.
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