One of the crucial political skills is the ability to count heads. Before you pick a battle, any battle at all, you have to count the heads. How many people in the room are on your side? How many are dead set against you? How many can be swayed to your side with a convincing argument? And how many just don't care and probably never will?
I share the concern a lot of people have about the new policy that will oblige Catholic agencies to pay for contraceptives for their staff. I would think even a religion-hating atheist ought to be worried that governments feel they can so casually order people to act contrary to their conscience.
But here is the thing: What is the head count?
My guess is that even a ballot in which Catholics were the only people allowed to vote would be a risky thing for opponents of this measure. Even at my church, which is one of the two most conservative parishes in the city, there are a lot of people who go to church every single Sunday who'd just love to see the Church brought down a peg or two on the contraception issue. They don't just use contraception, it has become part of the way they live. They don't get worked up about this because they don't see contraception as an important matter of dogma. They see it as a peripheral issue best left to individual conscience and they wouldn't mind at all to see the church suffer a public loss on the issue.
And, much as I hate to harp on about this, they believe that Church leaders' credibility to teach on moral issues relating to sexuality was largely undermined by the sex scandals. And it's crucial to grasp that they see this as an us-versus-them issue. On matters of sexuality, they don't see this as an issue concerning them as part of the Church. They see it as an issue regarding a group of leaders who have proven themselves corrupt and untrustworthy on sexual morality.
That's why the Obama administration have done this. You can bet they did the head count. They did some very thorough polling before making this move. They know that a lot of Catholics on the left are looking for an excuse to vote for Obama and they see this as a way of giving them that excuse. Whether that is enough to save Obama is another matter, the mere fact that he is busy shoring up his base this late in the game leads me to believe that he doesn't think his chances of getting re-elected are much better than fifty-fifty.
Don't get me wrong, the Church has no choice but to oppose this measure for it directly contradicts Church teaching. That said, I wouldn't count on the battle being won because it probably won't be.
I share the concern a lot of people have about the new policy that will oblige Catholic agencies to pay for contraceptives for their staff. I would think even a religion-hating atheist ought to be worried that governments feel they can so casually order people to act contrary to their conscience.
But here is the thing: What is the head count?
My guess is that even a ballot in which Catholics were the only people allowed to vote would be a risky thing for opponents of this measure. Even at my church, which is one of the two most conservative parishes in the city, there are a lot of people who go to church every single Sunday who'd just love to see the Church brought down a peg or two on the contraception issue. They don't just use contraception, it has become part of the way they live. They don't get worked up about this because they don't see contraception as an important matter of dogma. They see it as a peripheral issue best left to individual conscience and they wouldn't mind at all to see the church suffer a public loss on the issue.
And, much as I hate to harp on about this, they believe that Church leaders' credibility to teach on moral issues relating to sexuality was largely undermined by the sex scandals. And it's crucial to grasp that they see this as an us-versus-them issue. On matters of sexuality, they don't see this as an issue concerning them as part of the Church. They see it as an issue regarding a group of leaders who have proven themselves corrupt and untrustworthy on sexual morality.
That's why the Obama administration have done this. You can bet they did the head count. They did some very thorough polling before making this move. They know that a lot of Catholics on the left are looking for an excuse to vote for Obama and they see this as a way of giving them that excuse. Whether that is enough to save Obama is another matter, the mere fact that he is busy shoring up his base this late in the game leads me to believe that he doesn't think his chances of getting re-elected are much better than fifty-fifty.
Don't get me wrong, the Church has no choice but to oppose this measure for it directly contradicts Church teaching. That said, I wouldn't count on the battle being won because it probably won't be.
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