Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Sorta political: likeable?

I have a  question for you.

First some background. One of the things that really stands out about Obama is how hesitant people are to criticize him. All the other presidents of my lifetime have been brutally criticized. LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush 1, Clinton, Bush 2 were all subjected to scathing attacks. Reagan, who is the prime example people give of a president who was elected because he was likeable was regularly called a Nazi. Bush 2, another likeable guy, was also called a Nazi and had not one but two movies fantasizing about his assassination appear during his tenure.

Obama has been spared this. Yeah, there are some nutcases out there in the fever swamps, but he hasn't had the sorts of mainstream attacks others have had.

And people keep telling pollsters they like the guy even though his approval ratings are abysmal. People also kept telling pollsters they liked Reagan but Reagan's approval ratings were good.

So here is the question, do people not criticize Obama because they really like him or are they hesitant to do so because he is black?

I know, I know, how dare I ask such a question? I see that even Mickey Kaus, who normally doesn't shy away from touchy issues, shies away from this one. But, you know, this question is sensitive because ultimately it's not about racism. When people pretend to like someone more than they really do, what motivates them is not racism but the fear of seeming racist.

And it's incredibly important to ask this question. Currently the intelligent assessment is that the November election is close. If his seeming likeability, however, is an illusion, then Obama's chances at re-election are far worse than they appear.

PS: Bonus point: are undecideds really uniformed? Kaus also says,
... the race won’t necessarily be decided by relatively uninformed undecideds who only pay attention at the end
And that is true in one sense. If you quiz undecideds about current politics, they score poorly compared to committed voters for either side. But that is only significant if you think caring about politics all the time is a good thing. I don't.

I think it is far more "informed" to tune politics out most of the time and wonder sometimes if the last minute undecideds aren't a lot smarter than we give them credit for.

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